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The Federal Reserve Plans To Continue Increasing Interest Rates And Sell Portfolio Securities: If They Do, GDP Growth Could Slow

ArmchairPolitiicianFederalReserve, May 3, 2017, by Brad Peery, bradpeery007@gmail.com, www.ArmchairPolitician.US

The Federal Reserve (Fed) has traditionally controlled economic growth and inflation by controlling the growth of M1, the money supply. The larger the growth of the money supply, bank lending and corporate borrowing should increase, and businesses should invest to grow their businesses. This prescription has not worked for the last 8 years under the Obama administration. Obama inherited a recession recovery period. The Fed kept interest rates at near 0%, and we had one of the weakest recovery periods in recent history. GDP growth averaged 2%, and appears likely to remain at that level despite the weak 0.7% increase in the first quarter of 2017. A strong second quarter is expected, and the year 2017 is expected to come close to a 2% increase.

The Fed target for interest rates is 0.75% to 1%. If the economy remains strong, which seems to mean 2% growth in GDP, the Fed is likely to increase interest rates by 0.25% twice more in 2017, and twice in 2018, leaving interest rates on short-term government bonds at 1.75% to 2.0% at the end of 2018. The most noticeable effect will likely be to increase home mortgages rates from about 4% today, to about 5% at the end of 2018.

The Fed is planning to sell some of its securities, which will have the effect of reducing the money supply, and thereby slowing the economy. The level of the currency in circulation has increased from about $800 million eight years ago to about $1.5 billion today. The Fed has about a $4.2 trillion level of securities it owns, including about $1.8 billion of mortgage-backed securities. This level of securities owned has increased from about $500 million in 2008. It appears that a normal level of securities owned by the Fed could be 10% to 20% of GDP. The U.S. GDP was 18.56 trillion in 2016. Thus the Fed has securities that are about 23% of GDP currently, which is on the high side. The Fed has indicated it may start selling some of its’ securities at the end of 2017.

The Fed is currently targeting an inflation rate of 2.0%. Janet Yellen, the Chairman of the Fed, is saying that market expectations are for 2% inflation, and she is reluctant to change the targeted rate for that reason. Inflation, as measured by the year over year CPI, excluding food and energy, was 2.0% in March 2017.

The Fed looks at the effect of an interest rate increase on foreign countries. The economies look strong internationally, so Fed rate increases should not have much of an effect.

Countries with trade surpluses with the U.S. will benefit from increased Fed rates. Japan has $1.09 trillion U.S. securities, and China has $1.06 trillion.

The dollar has been strong since Trump was elected because of the expected economic stimulus of tax cuts and infrastructure spending. A weaker dollar helps the U.S. in competing internationally, and President Trump has said that he would like to see a weaker dollar. China has been supporting its’ currency to keep it in line with the U.S. dollar. Trump has reversed himself recently, and is no longer calling China a currency manipulator.

ArmchairPolitician.US Opinion: The objectives of the Trump administration are to stimulate growth to over 3% by stimulating job growth by reducing our trade deficit, particularly with Germany, Mexico, Japan and China, and bringing jobs back to the U.S. Other measures designed to increase growth in the U.S. include: Tax reductions, Infrastructure spending, and repatriating foreign dollars. The return, and possible investment, of corporate offshore dollars should occur if the corporate tax rate goes to 15-20%, and is at or below foreign tax rates.

The Fed increases in interest rates, and sale of their securities could reduce the U.S. GDP growth rate, and make it more difficult for Trump to meet his 3% growth rate objective.

30 comments to The Federal Reserve Plans To Continue Increasing Interest Rates And Sell Portfolio Securities: If They Do, GDP Growth Could Slow

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      I thought you might have an interest in getting an update on our website that is organized by subject, making it easier for you to get an overall picture of each of the subjects, countries, and events that are going on and affect U.S political issues and possible solutions.

      I look at this as the first edition of what will be our first of publication. I plan to update the book about every 3-4 months as an update to our blog site http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US. I plan to continue posting political blogs on http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.U.S.

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      I thought you might have an interest in getting an update on our website that is organized by subject, making it easier for you to get an overall picture of each of the subjects, countries, and events that are going on and affect U.S political issues and possible solutions.

      I look at this as the first edition of what will be our first of publication. I plan to update the book about every 3-4 months as an update to our blog site http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US. I plan to continue posting political blogs on http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.U.S.

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      Book: WWW. Amazon.com, Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements
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      I look at this as the first edition of what will be our first of publication. I plan to update the book about every 3-4 months as an update to our blog site http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US. I plan to continue posting political blogs on http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.U.S.

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      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
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      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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      We at ArmchairPolitician.US have published our first book on Amazon. We have also published it on Kindle. Its title is: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements, By ArmchairPolitician.US and Brad Peery.

      I thought you might have an interest in getting an update on our website that is organized by subject, making it easier for you to get an overall picture of each of the subjects, countries, and events that are going on and affect U.S political issues and possible solutions.

      I look at this as the first edition of what will be our first of publication. I plan to update the book about every 3-4 months as an update to our blog site http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US. I plan to continue posting political blogs on http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.U.S.

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      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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      We at ArmchairPolitician.US have published our first book on Amazon. We have also published it on Kindle. Its title is: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements, By ArmchairPolitician.US and Brad Peery.

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      If what I am doing is of interest, please buy the book and let me know you have done so. I will then put you on a preferred list that can stay in touch with me personally, and with whom I can communicate directly.

      Thanks for your interest in our blog, and hopefully our book, and staying in touch with us.

      Brad Peery & ArmchairPolitician.US

      Book: WWW. Amazon.com, Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements
      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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      ArmchairPolitician.US book on Amazon and Kindle, Title: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements

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      We at ArmchairPolitician.US have published our first book on Amazon. We have also published it on Kindle. Its title is: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements, By ArmchairPolitician.US and Brad Peery.

      I thought you might have an interest in getting an update on our website that is organized by subject, making it easier for you to get an overall picture of each of the subjects, countries, and events that are going on and affect U.S political issues and possible solutions.

      I look at this as the first edition of what will be our first of publication. I plan to update the book about every 3-4 months as an update to our blog site http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US. I plan to continue posting political blogs on http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.U.S.

      If what I am doing is of interest, please buy the book and let me know you have done so. I will then put you on a preferred list that can stay in touch with me personally, and with whom I can communicate directly.

      Thanks for your interest in our blog, and hopefully our book, and staying in touch with us.

      Brad Peery & ArmchairPolitician.US

      Book: WWW. Amazon.com, Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements
      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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      ArmchairPolitician.US book on Amazon and Kindle, Title: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements

      Hi,

      Thanks for your comments and interest in the ArmchairPolitician.US blog.

      We at ArmchairPolitician.US have published our first book on Amazon. We have also published it on Kindle. Its title is: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements, By ArmchairPolitician.US and Brad Peery.

      I thought you might have an interest in getting an update on our website that is organized by subject, making it easier for you to get an overall picture of each of the subjects, countries, and events that are going on and affect U.S political issues and possible solutions.

      I look at this as the first edition of what will be our first of publication. I plan to update the book about every 3-4 months as an update to our blog site http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US. I plan to continue posting political blogs on http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.U.S.

      If what I am doing is of interest, please buy the book and let me know you have done so. I will then put you on a preferred list that can stay in touch with me personally, and with whom I can communicate directly.

      Thanks for your interest in our blog, and hopefully our book, and staying in touch with us.

      Brad Peery & ArmchairPolitician.US

      Book: WWW. Amazon.com, Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements
      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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      ArmchairPolitician.US book on Amazon and Kindle, Title: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements

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      We at ArmchairPolitician.US have published our first book on Amazon. We have also published it on Kindle. Its title is: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements, By ArmchairPolitician.US and Brad Peery.

      I thought you might have an interest in getting an update on our website that is organized by subject, making it easier for you to get an overall picture of each of the subjects, countries, and events that are going on and affect U.S political issues and possible solutions.

      I look at this as the first edition of what will be our first of publication. I plan to update the book about every 3-4 months as an update to our blog site http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US. I plan to continue posting political blogs on http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.U.S.

      If what I am doing is of interest, please buy the book and let me know you have done so. I will then put you on a preferred list that can stay in touch with me personally, and with whom I can communicate directly.

      Thanks for your interest in our blog, and hopefully our book, and staying in touch with us.

      Brad Peery & ArmchairPolitician.US

      Book: WWW. Amazon.com, Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements
      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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      ArmchairPolitician.US book on Amazon and Kindle, Title: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements

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      We at ArmchairPolitician.US have published our first book on Amazon. We have also published it on Kindle. Its title is: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements, By ArmchairPolitician.US and Brad Peery.

      I thought you might have an interest in getting an update on our website that is organized by subject, making it easier for you to get an overall picture of each of the subjects, countries, and events that are going on and affect U.S political issues and possible solutions.

      I look at this as the first edition of what will be our first of publication. I plan to update the book about every 3-4 months as an update to our blog site http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US. I plan to continue posting political blogs on http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.U.S.

      If what I am doing is of interest, please buy the book and let me know you have done so. I will then put you on a preferred list that can stay in touch with me personally, and with whom I can communicate directly.

      Thanks for your interest in our blog, and hopefully our book, and staying in touch with us.

      Brad Peery & ArmchairPolitician.US

      Book: WWW. Amazon.com, Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements
      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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      ArmchairPolitician.US book on Amazon and Kindle, Title: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements

      Hi,

      Thanks for your comments and interest in the ArmchairPolitician.US blog.

      We at ArmchairPolitician.US have published our first book on Amazon. We have also published it on Kindle. Its title is: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements, By ArmchairPolitician.US and Brad Peery.

      I thought you might have an interest in getting an update on our website that is organized by subject, making it easier for you to get an overall picture of each of the subjects, countries, and events that are going on and affect U.S political issues and possible solutions.

      I look at this as the first edition of what will be our first of publication. I plan to update the book about every 3-4 months as an update to our blog site http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US. I plan to continue posting political blogs on http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.U.S.

      If what I am doing is of interest, please buy the book and let me know you have done so. I will then put you on a preferred list that can stay in touch with me personally, and with whom I can communicate directly.

      Thanks for your interest in our blog, and hopefully our book, and staying in touch with us.

      Brad Peery & ArmchairPolitician.US

      Book: WWW. Amazon.com, Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements
      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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      ArmchairPolitician.US book on Amazon and Kindle, Title: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements

      Hi,

      Thanks for your comments and interest in the ArmchairPolitician.US blog.

      We at ArmchairPolitician.US have published our first book on Amazon. We have also published it on Kindle. Its title is: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements, By ArmchairPolitician.US and Brad Peery.

      I thought you might have an interest in getting an update on our website that is organized by subject, making it easier for you to get an overall picture of each of the subjects, countries, and events that are going on and affect U.S political issues and possible solutions.

      I look at this as the first edition of what will be our first of publication. I plan to update the book about every 3-4 months as an update to our blog site http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US. I plan to continue posting political blogs on http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.U.S.

      If what I am doing is of interest, please buy the book and let me know you have done so. I will then put you on a preferred list that can stay in touch with me personally, and with whom I can communicate directly.

      Thanks for your interest in our blog, and hopefully our book, and staying in touch with us.

      Brad Peery & ArmchairPolitician.US

      Book: WWW. Amazon.com, Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements
      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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