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Trump Budget-Economic Assumptions: Are They Reasonable?

ArmchairPoliticianTrumpBudget, May 24, 2017, Brad Peery, ArmchairPolitician.US, bradpeery007@gmail.com

The Trump Budget-A New Foundation For American Greatness-Fiscal Year 2018 has been published by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). A starting point in looking at what is a 10-year budget is to look at the economic assumptions, particularly in view of Trumps agenda to increase the growth rate of the economy from the previous forecast of 1.9%. Economic growth was only 0.7% in the first quarter of 2017. However, it appears the second quarter will be in the range of about 3.5%, and the year will come in at about 2%. Real GDP is listed at 2.3% in the budget for fiscal 2017, so the budget starting point looks high. Real GDP is projected in the Budget to be 2.4% in 2018, which would be a large increase, if GDP does come out at 2.0% for fiscal 2017. The budget, when it came out was outdated, since the latest data was from early March, 2017. The Budget projects that the GDP growth rate will go from 2.4% over 3 years to 3.0% in 2021. This is a 10-year budget that has a 3.0% growth rate until 2027. If 3.0% long term growth is achieved in this period, the Trump objectives will have been achieved.

Important also is the forecasted inflation rate, because it also determines government collections, since taxes are charged on overall GDP growth, including inflation, not real growth. Currently the inflation rate is slightly above 2.0%. The Fed still has plans that could add another 0.75% to interest rates by the end of 2019. The budget shows the Consumer Price Index coming in at 2.6% in fiscal 2017, which appears to be very high. It is projected to drop to 2.3% for the following 10 years beginning in 2018. If Trump is successful in moving the growth rate of the economy up to 3.0%, the inflation rate is likely to increase from 2.3%, which would likely be driven by wage growth, since the unemployment rate was 4.4% in April, 2017. This could be a strong plus for President Trump, since his agenda is driven by seeking to improve middle class income growth through higher wages, and increasing job growth.

The economy bottom line is about the growth of jobs, 3.0% growth of the economy, and seeking to achieve a balanced budget within 10 years. These plans are in the face of possible deficits caused by the growth of military spending, building a southern wall to reduce illegal immigration, and rebuilding U.S. infrastructure. An increase in U.S.

With the projected 3.0% growth of the economy, and a 2.3% annual inflation rate, nominal GDP growth is projected to be 5.1% yearly beginning with 4.3% in 2017, which is more likely to be about 4.0%, and growing to 5.1% by 2021. The fiscal 2018 forecast is unlikely to be achieved, unless inflation is stronger than expected, and economic growth improves fairly quickly.

ArmchairPolitician.US. Opinion: The OMB projections appear to be very inaccurate in their initial inflation, and fiscal growth rate assumptions. They may provide long term forecasts that are more valuable in assessing the likelihood that Trump will be successful in achieving his objectives for the economy. This is Trump’s budget, and is only a starting point in forecasting what the real U.S. budget for 2018 and beyond will look like. If Trump can achieve 2.2% economic growth in fiscal 2018, and the CPI increases by 2.2%, 4.3% nominal GDP growth in fiscal 2018 might be possible. Some economic improvement and a slightly higher inflation rate might allow Trump to achieve in fiscal 2018 what OMB is inaccurately forecasting for 2017.

30 comments to Trump Budget-Economic Assumptions: Are They Reasonable?

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      I thought you might have an interest in getting an update on our website that is organized by subject, making it easier for you to get an overall picture of each of the subjects, countries, and events that are going on and affect U.S political issues and possible solutions.

      I look at this as the first edition of what will be our first of publication. I plan to update the book about every 3-4 months as an update to our blog site http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US. I plan to continue posting political blogs on http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.U.S.

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      ArmchairPolitician.US book on Amazon and Kindle, Title: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements

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      We at ArmchairPolitician.US have published our first book on Amazon. We have also published it on Kindle. Its title is: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements, By ArmchairPolitician.US and Brad Peery.

      I thought you might have an interest in getting an update on our website that is organized by subject, making it easier for you to get an overall picture of each of the subjects, countries, and events that are going on and affect U.S political issues and possible solutions.

      I look at this as the first edition of what will be our first of publication. I plan to update the book about every 3-4 months as an update to our blog site http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US. I plan to continue posting political blogs on http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.U.S.

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      We at ArmchairPolitician.US have published our first book on Amazon. We have also published it on Kindle. Its title is: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements, By ArmchairPolitician.US and Brad Peery.

      I thought you might have an interest in getting an update on our website that is organized by subject, making it easier for you to get an overall picture of each of the subjects, countries, and events that are going on and affect U.S political issues and possible solutions.

      I look at this as the first edition of what will be our first of publication. I plan to update the book about every 3-4 months as an update to our blog site http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US. I plan to continue posting political blogs on http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.U.S.

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      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
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      I thought you might have an interest in getting an update on our website that is organized by subject, making it easier for you to get an overall picture of each of the subjects, countries, and events that are going on and affect U.S political issues and possible solutions.

      I look at this as the first edition of what will be our first of publication. I plan to update the book about every 3-4 months as an update to our blog site http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US. I plan to continue posting political blogs on http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.U.S.

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      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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      We at ArmchairPolitician.US have published our first book on Amazon. We have also published it on Kindle. Its title is: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements, By ArmchairPolitician.US and Brad Peery.

      I thought you might have an interest in getting an update on our website that is organized by subject, making it easier for you to get an overall picture of each of the subjects, countries, and events that are going on and affect U.S political issues and possible solutions.

      I look at this as the first edition of what will be our first of publication. I plan to update the book about every 3-4 months as an update to our blog site http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US. I plan to continue posting political blogs on http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.U.S.

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      Book: WWW. Amazon.com, Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements
      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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      We at ArmchairPolitician.US have published our first book on Amazon. We have also published it on Kindle. Its title is: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements, By ArmchairPolitician.US and Brad Peery.

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      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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      We at ArmchairPolitician.US have published our first book on Amazon. We have also published it on Kindle. Its title is: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements, By ArmchairPolitician.US and Brad Peery.

      I thought you might have an interest in getting an update on our website that is organized by subject, making it easier for you to get an overall picture of each of the subjects, countries, and events that are going on and affect U.S political issues and possible solutions.

      I look at this as the first edition of what will be our first of publication. I plan to update the book about every 3-4 months as an update to our blog site http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US. I plan to continue posting political blogs on http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.U.S.

      If what I am doing is of interest, please buy the book and let me know you have done so. I will then put you on a preferred list that can stay in touch with me personally, and with whom I can communicate directly.

      Thanks for your interest in our blog, and hopefully our book, and staying in touch with us.

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      Book: WWW. Amazon.com, Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements
      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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      We at ArmchairPolitician.US have published our first book on Amazon. We have also published it on Kindle. Its title is: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements, By ArmchairPolitician.US and Brad Peery.

      I thought you might have an interest in getting an update on our website that is organized by subject, making it easier for you to get an overall picture of each of the subjects, countries, and events that are going on and affect U.S political issues and possible solutions.

      I look at this as the first edition of what will be our first of publication. I plan to update the book about every 3-4 months as an update to our blog site http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US. I plan to continue posting political blogs on http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.U.S.

      If what I am doing is of interest, please buy the book and let me know you have done so. I will then put you on a preferred list that can stay in touch with me personally, and with whom I can communicate directly.

      Thanks for your interest in our blog, and hopefully our book, and staying in touch with us.

      Brad Peery & ArmchairPolitician.US

      Book: WWW. Amazon.com, Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements
      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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      ArmchairPolitician.US book on Amazon and Kindle, Title: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements

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      We at ArmchairPolitician.US have published our first book on Amazon. We have also published it on Kindle. Its title is: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements, By ArmchairPolitician.US and Brad Peery.

      I thought you might have an interest in getting an update on our website that is organized by subject, making it easier for you to get an overall picture of each of the subjects, countries, and events that are going on and affect U.S political issues and possible solutions.

      I look at this as the first edition of what will be our first of publication. I plan to update the book about every 3-4 months as an update to our blog site http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US. I plan to continue posting political blogs on http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.U.S.

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      Thanks for your interest in our blog, and hopefully our book, and staying in touch with us.

      Brad Peery & ArmchairPolitician.US

      Book: WWW. Amazon.com, Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements
      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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      ArmchairPolitician.US book on Amazon and Kindle, Title: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements

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      We at ArmchairPolitician.US have published our first book on Amazon. We have also published it on Kindle. Its title is: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements, By ArmchairPolitician.US and Brad Peery.

      I thought you might have an interest in getting an update on our website that is organized by subject, making it easier for you to get an overall picture of each of the subjects, countries, and events that are going on and affect U.S political issues and possible solutions.

      I look at this as the first edition of what will be our first of publication. I plan to update the book about every 3-4 months as an update to our blog site http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US. I plan to continue posting political blogs on http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.U.S.

      If what I am doing is of interest, please buy the book and let me know you have done so. I will then put you on a preferred list that can stay in touch with me personally, and with whom I can communicate directly.

      Thanks for your interest in our blog, and hopefully our book, and staying in touch with us.

      Brad Peery & ArmchairPolitician.US

      Book: WWW. Amazon.com, Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements
      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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      ArmchairPolitician.US book on Amazon and Kindle, Title: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements

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      We at ArmchairPolitician.US have published our first book on Amazon. We have also published it on Kindle. Its title is: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements, By ArmchairPolitician.US and Brad Peery.

      I thought you might have an interest in getting an update on our website that is organized by subject, making it easier for you to get an overall picture of each of the subjects, countries, and events that are going on and affect U.S political issues and possible solutions.

      I look at this as the first edition of what will be our first of publication. I plan to update the book about every 3-4 months as an update to our blog site http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US. I plan to continue posting political blogs on http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.U.S.

      If what I am doing is of interest, please buy the book and let me know you have done so. I will then put you on a preferred list that can stay in touch with me personally, and with whom I can communicate directly.

      Thanks for your interest in our blog, and hopefully our book, and staying in touch with us.

      Brad Peery & ArmchairPolitician.US

      Book: WWW. Amazon.com, Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements
      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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    • acp

      ArmchairPolitician.US book on Amazon and Kindle, Title: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements

      Hi,

      Thanks for your comments and interest in the ArmchairPolitician.US blog.

      We at ArmchairPolitician.US have published our first book on Amazon. We have also published it on Kindle. Its title is: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements, By ArmchairPolitician.US and Brad Peery.

      I thought you might have an interest in getting an update on our website that is organized by subject, making it easier for you to get an overall picture of each of the subjects, countries, and events that are going on and affect U.S political issues and possible solutions.

      I look at this as the first edition of what will be our first of publication. I plan to update the book about every 3-4 months as an update to our blog site http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US. I plan to continue posting political blogs on http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.U.S.

      If what I am doing is of interest, please buy the book and let me know you have done so. I will then put you on a preferred list that can stay in touch with me personally, and with whom I can communicate directly.

      Thanks for your interest in our blog, and hopefully our book, and staying in touch with us.

      Brad Peery & ArmchairPolitician.US

      Book: WWW. Amazon.com, Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements
      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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      ArmchairPolitician.US book on Amazon and Kindle, Title: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements

      Hi,

      Thanks for your comments and interest in the ArmchairPolitician.US blog.

      We at ArmchairPolitician.US have published our first book on Amazon. We have also published it on Kindle. Its title is: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements, By ArmchairPolitician.US and Brad Peery.

      I thought you might have an interest in getting an update on our website that is organized by subject, making it easier for you to get an overall picture of each of the subjects, countries, and events that are going on and affect U.S political issues and possible solutions.

      I look at this as the first edition of what will be our first of publication. I plan to update the book about every 3-4 months as an update to our blog site http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US. I plan to continue posting political blogs on http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.U.S.

      If what I am doing is of interest, please buy the book and let me know you have done so. I will then put you on a preferred list that can stay in touch with me personally, and with whom I can communicate directly.

      Thanks for your interest in our blog, and hopefully our book, and staying in touch with us.

      Brad Peery & ArmchairPolitician.US

      Book: WWW. Amazon.com, Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements
      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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