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Trump Budget-Results Overview: Can It Deliver A Balanced Budget?

ArmchairPoliticianTrumpBudget, May 26, 2017, Brad Peery, ArmchairPolitician.US, bradpeery007@gmail.com

President Trump is championing reducing corporate taxes to 15% as a way of making U.S. companies competitive worldwide, returning jobs to the U.S., and recapturing offshore corporate cash. However, the corporate income tax receipts are inconsistent with these plans. Corporate income tax receipts go from $324 billion in fiscal 2017 to $355 billion in fiscal 2018, a 9.6% increase. This is an increase from 1.7% of GDP to 1.8% of GDP. This does not make sense, in view of the large tax reduction, implying that the corporate tax reductions are not in the budget. Through 2027, corporate tax revenues grow at a 4.4% compound growth rate. This does not appear to be likely, even if Trump only reduces corporate taxes to a 20% tax rate.

The Trump administration’s personal tax plans are equally as mystifying. The tax brackets have been reduced to three, but those tax brackets are undefined. It is not yet possible to estimate how many taxpayers will fall into each of the brackets, and thereby estimate what the tax revenues might be. Also, the standard tax deduction has been raised from $12,000 to $24,000. This should substantially reduce the need to itemize deductions. Individual income tax receipts are much larger than corporate tax receipts, so the details of individual tax reductions will be important. Individual income tax receipts are projected to increase from $1,660 billion in fiscal 2017 to $1,836 billion in fiscal 2018, a 10.6% increase. This appears to be an extremely large increase, and unreasonable, even with no individual tax reductions. Personal taxes jump from 8.7% of GDP in 2017 to 9.2% of GDP in fiscal 2018, another indication of how unreasonable the projections appear to be. Through 2027, personal tax receipts grow at a 6.3% compound growth rate. Despite a tax reduction, they are projected to grow faster than the 5.0% compound growth rate of GDP.

Other tax receipts grow about in line with GDP, which seems reasonable. The high tax receipts offset $55 billion of receipts from Obamacare that are eliminated by the replacement of Obamacare. How this occurs is unclear. The public dialogue in the congress has been that the replacement of Obamacare will reduce healthcare expenditures by about $1 billion over ten years. Perhaps this will be explained in the government expenditure forecasts.

Defense expenditures are projected to increase from $594 billion to $643 billion, a $49 billion increase in fiscal 2018 from fiscal 2017. This is an 8.3% increase, and below the level of forecasted corporate and individual tax receipts growth. Defense expenditures are forecasted to grow from 3.1% of GDP in 2017, to 3.2% of GDP in 2018. They then decline over 9 years to 2.3% of GDP in 2027. It is difficult to understand how these military expenditure levels will allow us to rebuild our military, as President Trump has advocated.

Non-defense expenditures are projected to decline from $619 billion in fiscal 2017 to $601 billion in fiscal 2018. This is just the beginning of a continuing decline to $429 billion in 2027. This is a 3.6% compound reduction, which, with a 2.3% inflation rate, is about a 6% per year real reduction. If the Trump administration could hold costs flat in a 2.3% inflation environment, that might be a politically achievable objective, assuming the Republicans can come together as a bloc.

The bottom line of the budget is what happens to the deficit. The deficit is forecasted to decline from $603 billion in fiscal 2017 to $440 billion in fiscal 2018, and then going to a surplus of $16 billion in 2017. The large growth of corporate and personal tax revenues, unreasonable assumptions, show this result. This is in the face of large defense expenditure increases, increases in infrastructure spending, higher Federal Reserve debt costs, and only $190 billion of government forecasted cost reductions.

ArmchairPolitician.US Opinion: The Trump budget is totally unreasonable in terms of revenue forecasts, and government cost reductions, both on a one-year, and on a ten-year basis. It will be interesting to see how the budget changes when congressionally approved tax reductions and government spending declines are included in the budget. We will follow those developments closely, as well as the economic assumptions underlying the forecasts.

See
ArmchairPoliticianTrumpBudget, May 25, 2017, Brad Peery, ArmchairPolitician.US, bradpeery007@gmail.com
Trump Budget-Economic Assumptions: Are They Reasonable?

See Also:
ArmchairPoliticianTrumpBudget, March 19, 2017, by Brad Peery,
Trump Budget Strategy: Target 10% or More Budget Reductions for Most Departments, and the EPA, While Increasing Defense and Security Expenditures.
May 24, 2017, This article was published before our ArmchairPolitician.US blog site started on March 24, 2017.

See Also:
ArmchairPoliticianTrumpBudget, March 3, 2017, Brad Peery, ArmchairPolitician.US, bradpeery007@gmail.com
Government Spending: If Trump Can Stimulate the US Growth Rate, Tax Increases Could Help Reduce the Deficit, Subject to the Impact of Tax Reductions.
This article was published before our ArmchairPolitician.US blog site started on March 24, 2017.

34 comments to Trump Budget-Results Overview: Can It Deliver A Balanced Budget?

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      We at ArmchairPolitician.US have published our first book on Amazon. We have also published it on Kindle. Its title is: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements, By ArmchairPolitician.US and Brad Peery.

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      I look at this as the first edition of what will be our first of publication. I plan to update the book about every 3-4 months as an update to our blog site http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US. I plan to continue posting political blogs on http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.U.S.

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      Brad Peery & ArmchairPolitician.US

      Book: WWW. Amazon.com, Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements
      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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      ArmchairPolitician.US book on Amazon and Kindle, Title: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements

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      We at ArmchairPolitician.US have published our first book on Amazon. We have also published it on Kindle. Its title is: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements, By ArmchairPolitician.US and Brad Peery.

      I thought you might have an interest in getting an update on our website that is organized by subject, making it easier for you to get an overall picture of each of the subjects, countries, and events that are going on and affect U.S political issues and possible solutions.

      I look at this as the first edition of what will be our first of publication. I plan to update the book about every 3-4 months as an update to our blog site http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US. I plan to continue posting political blogs on http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.U.S.

      If what I am doing is of interest, please buy the book and let me know you have done so. I will then put you on a preferred list that can stay in touch with me personally, and with whom I can communicate directly.

      Thanks for your interest in our blog, and hopefully our book, and staying in touch with us.

      Brad Peery & ArmchairPolitician.US

      Book: WWW. Amazon.com, Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements
      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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      We at ArmchairPolitician.US have published our first book on Amazon. We have also published it on Kindle. Its title is: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements, By ArmchairPolitician.US and Brad Peery.

      I thought you might have an interest in getting an update on our website that is organized by subject, making it easier for you to get an overall picture of each of the subjects, countries, and events that are going on and affect U.S political issues and possible solutions.

      I look at this as the first edition of what will be our first of publication. I plan to update the book about every 3-4 months as an update to our blog site http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US. I plan to continue posting political blogs on http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.U.S.

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      Brad Peery & ArmchairPolitician.US

      Book: WWW. Amazon.com, Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements
      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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      We at ArmchairPolitician.US have published our first book on Amazon. We have also published it on Kindle. Its title is: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements, By ArmchairPolitician.US and Brad Peery.

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      I look at this as the first edition of what will be our first of publication. I plan to update the book about every 3-4 months as an update to our blog site http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US. I plan to continue posting political blogs on http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.U.S.

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      Book: WWW. Amazon.com, Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements
      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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      ArmchairPolitician.US book on Amazon and Kindle, Title: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements

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      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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      ArmchairPolitician.US book on Amazon and Kindle, Title: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements

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      We at ArmchairPolitician.US have published our first book on Amazon. We have also published it on Kindle. Its title is: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements, By ArmchairPolitician.US and Brad Peery.

      I thought you might have an interest in getting an update on our website that is organized by subject, making it easier for you to get an overall picture of each of the subjects, countries, and events that are going on and affect U.S political issues and possible solutions.

      I look at this as the first edition of what will be our first of publication. I plan to update the book about every 3-4 months as an update to our blog site http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US. I plan to continue posting political blogs on http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.U.S.

      If what I am doing is of interest, please buy the book and let me know you have done so. I will then put you on a preferred list that can stay in touch with me personally, and with whom I can communicate directly.

      Thanks for your interest in our blog, and hopefully our book, and staying in touch with us.

      Brad Peery & ArmchairPolitician.US

      Book: WWW. Amazon.com, Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements
      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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      ArmchairPolitician.US book on Amazon and Kindle, Title: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements

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      I thought you might have an interest in getting an update on our website that is organized by subject, making it easier for you to get an overall picture of each of the subjects, countries, and events that are going on and affect U.S political issues and possible solutions.

      I look at this as the first edition of what will be our first of publication. I plan to update the book about every 3-4 months as an update to our blog site http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US. I plan to continue posting political blogs on http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.U.S.

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      Thanks for your interest in our blog, and hopefully our book, and staying in touch with us.

      Brad Peery & ArmchairPolitician.US

      Book: WWW. Amazon.com, Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements
      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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      Brad Peery & ArmchairPolitician.US

      Book: WWW. Amazon.com, Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements
      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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      ArmchairPolitician.US book on Amazon and Kindle, Title: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements

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      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
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      ArmchairPolitician.US book on Amazon and Kindle, Title: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements

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      We at ArmchairPolitician.US have published our first book on Amazon. We have also published it on Kindle. Its title is: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements, By ArmchairPolitician.US and Brad Peery.

      I thought you might have an interest in getting an update on our website that is organized by subject, making it easier for you to get an overall picture of each of the subjects, countries, and events that are going on and affect U.S political issues and possible solutions.

      I look at this as the first edition of what will be our first of publication. I plan to update the book about every 3-4 months as an update to our blog site http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US. I plan to continue posting political blogs on http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.U.S.

      If what I am doing is of interest, please buy the book and let me know you have done so. I will then put you on a preferred list that can stay in touch with me personally, and with whom I can communicate directly.

      Thanks for your interest in our blog, and hopefully our book, and staying in touch with us.

      Brad Peery & ArmchairPolitician.US

      Book: WWW. Amazon.com, Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements
      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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      ArmchairPolitician.US book on Amazon and Kindle, Title: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements

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      We at ArmchairPolitician.US have published our first book on Amazon. We have also published it on Kindle. Its title is: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements, By ArmchairPolitician.US and Brad Peery.

      I thought you might have an interest in getting an update on our website that is organized by subject, making it easier for you to get an overall picture of each of the subjects, countries, and events that are going on and affect U.S political issues and possible solutions.

      I look at this as the first edition of what will be our first of publication. I plan to update the book about every 3-4 months as an update to our blog site http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US. I plan to continue posting political blogs on http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.U.S.

      If what I am doing is of interest, please buy the book and let me know you have done so. I will then put you on a preferred list that can stay in touch with me personally, and with whom I can communicate directly.

      Thanks for your interest in our blog, and hopefully our book, and staying in touch with us.

      Brad Peery & ArmchairPolitician.US

      Book: WWW. Amazon.com, Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements
      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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    • acp

      ArmchairPolitician.US book on Amazon and Kindle, Title: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements

      Hi,

      Thanks for your comments and interest in the ArmchairPolitician.US blog.

      We at ArmchairPolitician.US have published our first book on Amazon. We have also published it on Kindle. Its title is: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements, By ArmchairPolitician.US and Brad Peery.

      I thought you might have an interest in getting an update on our website that is organized by subject, making it easier for you to get an overall picture of each of the subjects, countries, and events that are going on and affect U.S political issues and possible solutions.

      I look at this as the first edition of what will be our first of publication. I plan to update the book about every 3-4 months as an update to our blog site http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US. I plan to continue posting political blogs on http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.U.S.

      If what I am doing is of interest, please buy the book and let me know you have done so. I will then put you on a preferred list that can stay in touch with me personally, and with whom I can communicate directly.

      Thanks for your interest in our blog, and hopefully our book, and staying in touch with us.

      Brad Peery & ArmchairPolitician.US

      Book: WWW. Amazon.com, Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements
      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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    • acp

      ArmchairPolitician.US book on Amazon and Kindle, Title: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements

      Hi,

      Thanks for your comments and interest in the ArmchairPolitician.US blog.

      We at ArmchairPolitician.US have published our first book on Amazon. We have also published it on Kindle. Its title is: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements, By ArmchairPolitician.US and Brad Peery.

      I thought you might have an interest in getting an update on our website that is organized by subject, making it easier for you to get an overall picture of each of the subjects, countries, and events that are going on and affect U.S political issues and possible solutions.

      I look at this as the first edition of what will be our first of publication. I plan to update the book about every 3-4 months as an update to our blog site http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US. I plan to continue posting political blogs on http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.U.S.

      If what I am doing is of interest, please buy the book and let me know you have done so. I will then put you on a preferred list that can stay in touch with me personally, and with whom I can communicate directly.

      Thanks for your interest in our blog, and hopefully our book, and staying in touch with us.

      Brad Peery & ArmchairPolitician.US

      Book: WWW. Amazon.com, Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements
      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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