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Trump Budget-Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid & Obamacare Repeal-The Issues Are Serious

ArmchairPoliticianTrumpBudget, May 27, 2017, Brad Peery, ArmchairPolitician.US, bradpeery007@gmail.com

The Trump Budget is supposedly a balance one at the end of 10 years, but the revenue growth numbers are unrealistic. It appears that a 3% GDP growth rate is assumed, without the personal and corporate tax deductions that are supposed to drive the higher GDP growth rate.

The personal and business tax reductions are irrelevant to what happens to Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and the Obamacare repeal, the GDP growth rate is important, because it is instructive to measure these programs as a part of GDP.

Medicaid is a particularly large program because there are no revenue sources, such as there are for Social Security and Medicare, to offset the costs. It is forecasted to be $378 billion in 2017, and grow at a 3.2% compound growth rate to $524 billion in 2028. With the 5.0% growth rate of GDP, it goes from 2.0% of GDP to 1.7% of GDP. The presumption seems to be that Medicaid will grow at about a 1% growth rate, assuming that medical costs only grow at the 2.3% inflation rate that is forecast. These assumptions will be interesting to reexamine when an Obamacare replacement bill is passed, assuming that it is.

The assumption in the budget is that Obamacare is passed, and its’ savings total is $175 billion in 2018. This is 0.6% of GDP, and more than offsets the budgeted increase in Medicaid.

Social Security is forecasted to go bankrupt in about 20 years. However this is misleading. Social Security is a pay as you go program, and as long as congress is willing to fund the difference between Social Security payroll receipts and Social Security Payments, the program should continue. In 2017 Social Security payments are forecasted to be $946 billion, or 4.9% of GDP. It is forecasted to grow to $1,725 billion in fiscal 2017, an increase to 5.6% of GDP, despite a 5% GDP growth rate. This is a 6.2% compound growth rate. Since Social Security payments only grow at the rate of the CPI, which is forecasted to be 2.3% per year, this implies that people receiving Social Security payments will grow by about 3.9%.

Social Security payroll receipts are forecasted to be $857 billion in 2017. This is $89 billion less than payments in 2017. Receipts are expected to grow to $1,379 billion in 2018, with the payment shortfall increasing to $346 billion. Receipts go from 4.5% of GDP in 2017 to 4.4% of GDP in 2027. The compound growth rate of receipts is expected to be 4.9%, about the growth rate of GDP. This implies that payroll payments will grow at about the rate of GDP. This does not seem to be an unreasonable assumption.

The other large program we are examining is Medicare. Medicare payments show the same pattern as Social Security, which is what one would expect. Medicare payments go from $593 billion in 2017 to $1,168 billion in fiscal 2017, a 7.0% growth rate, compared to a 6.2% growth rate for Social Security payments. Medicare payments grow from 3.1% of GDP in 2017 to 3.8% of GDP.

Medicare payroll receipts go from $258 billions, or 1.3% of GDP in fiscal 2017 to $427 billion, or 1.4% of GDP in 2017, a 5.2% compound growth rate, only slightly more than the forecasted 5.0% compound growth rate of GDP. The Medicare deficit goes from $335 billion in 2017, about 3.8 times the deficit of Social Security, to $471 billion in 2027, about 1.4 times the Social Security shortfall.

ArmchairPolitician.US Opinion: The Medicare and Social Security programs are definitely problems. The problem in 10 years is that the number of retired persons will grow much more rapidly than employment, which generates Social Security and Medicare payments. Because of this the deficit for Social Security will be 1.2% of GDP, compared to only 0.4% of GDP in 2017. The deficit for Medicare is even more of a problem. The Medicare deficit grows from 0.7% of GDP in 2017 to 2.4% of GDP. The increase in the Social Security and Medicare deficits are forecasted to grow by 2.5% of GDP. This is almost equivalent to the amount of defense expenditures, and will crowd out discretionary spending, if it is not addressed by adjusting payroll taxes upward, or setting later Social Security or Medicare qualification ages. The Medicaid issue could be less of a problem, depending on how Obamacare might be revised.

See
ArmchairPoliticianTrumpBudget, May 26, 2017, Brad Peery, ArmchairPolitician.US, bradpeery007@gmail.com
Trump Budget-Results Overview: Can It Deliver A Balanced Budget?

See Also:
ArmchairPoliticianTrumpBudget, May 24, 2017, Brad Peery, ArmchairPolitician.US, bradpeery007@gmail.com
Trump Budget-Economic Assumptions: Are They Reasonable?

35 comments to Trump Budget-Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid & Obamacare Repeal-The Issues Are Serious

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    • acp

      ArmchairPolitician.US book on Amazon and Kindle, Title: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements

      Hi,

      Thanks for your comments and interest in the ArmchairPolitician.US blog.

      We at ArmchairPolitician.US have published our first book on Amazon. We have also published it on Kindle. Its title is: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements, By ArmchairPolitician.US and Brad Peery.

      I thought you might have an interest in getting an update on our website that is organized by subject, making it easier for you to get an overall picture of each of the subjects, countries, and events that are going on and affect U.S political issues and possible solutions.

      I look at this as the first edition of what will be our first of publication. I plan to update the book about every 3-4 months as an update to our blog site http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US. I plan to continue posting political blogs on http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.U.S.

      If what I am doing is of interest, please buy the book and let me know you have done so. I will then put you on a preferred list that can stay in touch with me personally, and with whom I can communicate directly.

      Thanks for your interest in our blog, and hopefully our book, and staying in touch with us.

      Brad Peery & ArmchairPolitician.US

      Book: WWW. Amazon.com, Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements
      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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      ArmchairPolitician.US book on Amazon and Kindle, Title: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements

      Hi,

      Thanks for your comments and interest in the ArmchairPolitician.US blog.

      We at ArmchairPolitician.US have published our first book on Amazon. We have also published it on Kindle. Its title is: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements, By ArmchairPolitician.US and Brad Peery.

      I thought you might have an interest in getting an update on our website that is organized by subject, making it easier for you to get an overall picture of each of the subjects, countries, and events that are going on and affect U.S political issues and possible solutions.

      I look at this as the first edition of what will be our first of publication. I plan to update the book about every 3-4 months as an update to our blog site http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US. I plan to continue posting political blogs on http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.U.S.

      If what I am doing is of interest, please buy the book and let me know you have done so. I will then put you on a preferred list that can stay in touch with me personally, and with whom I can communicate directly.

      Thanks for your interest in our blog, and hopefully our book, and staying in touch with us.

      Brad Peery & ArmchairPolitician.US

      Book: WWW. Amazon.com, Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements
      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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      ArmchairPolitician.US book on Amazon and Kindle, Title: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements

      Hi,

      Thanks for your comments and interest in the ArmchairPolitician.US blog.

      We at ArmchairPolitician.US have published our first book on Amazon. We have also published it on Kindle. Its title is: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements, By ArmchairPolitician.US and Brad Peery.

      I thought you might have an interest in getting an update on our website that is organized by subject, making it easier for you to get an overall picture of each of the subjects, countries, and events that are going on and affect U.S political issues and possible solutions.

      I look at this as the first edition of what will be our first of publication. I plan to update the book about every 3-4 months as an update to our blog site http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US. I plan to continue posting political blogs on http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.U.S.

      If what I am doing is of interest, please buy the book and let me know you have done so. I will then put you on a preferred list that can stay in touch with me personally, and with whom I can communicate directly.

      Thanks for your interest in our blog, and hopefully our book, and staying in touch with us.

      Brad Peery & ArmchairPolitician.US

      Book: WWW. Amazon.com, Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements
      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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      ArmchairPolitician.US book on Amazon and Kindle, Title: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements

      Hi,

      Thanks for your comments and interest in the ArmchairPolitician.US blog.

      We at ArmchairPolitician.US have published our first book on Amazon. We have also published it on Kindle. Its title is: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements, By ArmchairPolitician.US and Brad Peery.

      I thought you might have an interest in getting an update on our website that is organized by subject, making it easier for you to get an overall picture of each of the subjects, countries, and events that are going on and affect U.S political issues and possible solutions.

      I look at this as the first edition of what will be our first of publication. I plan to update the book about every 3-4 months as an update to our blog site http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US. I plan to continue posting political blogs on http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.U.S.

      If what I am doing is of interest, please buy the book and let me know you have done so. I will then put you on a preferred list that can stay in touch with me personally, and with whom I can communicate directly.

      Thanks for your interest in our blog, and hopefully our book, and staying in touch with us.

      Brad Peery & ArmchairPolitician.US

      Book: WWW. Amazon.com, Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements
      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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      ArmchairPolitician.US book on Amazon and Kindle, Title: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements

      Hi,

      Thanks for your comments and interest in the ArmchairPolitician.US blog.

      We at ArmchairPolitician.US have published our first book on Amazon. We have also published it on Kindle. Its title is: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements, By ArmchairPolitician.US and Brad Peery.

      I thought you might have an interest in getting an update on our website that is organized by subject, making it easier for you to get an overall picture of each of the subjects, countries, and events that are going on and affect U.S political issues and possible solutions.

      I look at this as the first edition of what will be our first of publication. I plan to update the book about every 3-4 months as an update to our blog site http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US. I plan to continue posting political blogs on http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.U.S.

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      Thanks for your interest in our blog, and hopefully our book, and staying in touch with us.

      Brad Peery & ArmchairPolitician.US

      Book: WWW. Amazon.com, Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements
      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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      ArmchairPolitician.US book on Amazon and Kindle, Title: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements

      Hi,

      Thanks for your comments and interest in the ArmchairPolitician.US blog.

      We at ArmchairPolitician.US have published our first book on Amazon. We have also published it on Kindle. Its title is: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements, By ArmchairPolitician.US and Brad Peery.

      I thought you might have an interest in getting an update on our website that is organized by subject, making it easier for you to get an overall picture of each of the subjects, countries, and events that are going on and affect U.S political issues and possible solutions.

      I look at this as the first edition of what will be our first of publication. I plan to update the book about every 3-4 months as an update to our blog site http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US. I plan to continue posting political blogs on http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.U.S.

      If what I am doing is of interest, please buy the book and let me know you have done so. I will then put you on a preferred list that can stay in touch with me personally, and with whom I can communicate directly.

      Thanks for your interest in our blog, and hopefully our book, and staying in touch with us.

      Brad Peery & ArmchairPolitician.US

      Book: WWW. Amazon.com, Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements
      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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    • acp

      ArmchairPolitician.US book on Amazon and Kindle, Title: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements

      Hi,

      Thanks for your comments and interest in the ArmchairPolitician.US blog.

      We at ArmchairPolitician.US have published our first book on Amazon. We have also published it on Kindle. Its title is: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements, By ArmchairPolitician.US and Brad Peery.

      I thought you might have an interest in getting an update on our website that is organized by subject, making it easier for you to get an overall picture of each of the subjects, countries, and events that are going on and affect U.S political issues and possible solutions.

      I look at this as the first edition of what will be our first of publication. I plan to update the book about every 3-4 months as an update to our blog site http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US. I plan to continue posting political blogs on http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.U.S.

      If what I am doing is of interest, please buy the book and let me know you have done so. I will then put you on a preferred list that can stay in touch with me personally, and with whom I can communicate directly.

      Thanks for your interest in our blog, and hopefully our book, and staying in touch with us.

      Brad Peery & ArmchairPolitician.US

      Book: WWW. Amazon.com, Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements
      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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    • acp

      ArmchairPolitician.US book on Amazon and Kindle, Title: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements

      Hi,

      Thanks for your comments and interest in the ArmchairPolitician.US blog.

      We at ArmchairPolitician.US have published our first book on Amazon. We have also published it on Kindle. Its title is: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements, By ArmchairPolitician.US and Brad Peery.

      I thought you might have an interest in getting an update on our website that is organized by subject, making it easier for you to get an overall picture of each of the subjects, countries, and events that are going on and affect U.S political issues and possible solutions.

      I look at this as the first edition of what will be our first of publication. I plan to update the book about every 3-4 months as an update to our blog site http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US. I plan to continue posting political blogs on http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.U.S.

      If what I am doing is of interest, please buy the book and let me know you have done so. I will then put you on a preferred list that can stay in touch with me personally, and with whom I can communicate directly.

      Thanks for your interest in our blog, and hopefully our book, and staying in touch with us.

      Brad Peery & ArmchairPolitician.US

      Book: WWW. Amazon.com, Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements
      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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    • acp

      ArmchairPolitician.US book on Amazon and Kindle, Title: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements

      Hi,

      Thanks for your comments and interest in the ArmchairPolitician.US blog.

      We at ArmchairPolitician.US have published our first book on Amazon. We have also published it on Kindle. Its title is: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements, By ArmchairPolitician.US and Brad Peery.

      I thought you might have an interest in getting an update on our website that is organized by subject, making it easier for you to get an overall picture of each of the subjects, countries, and events that are going on and affect U.S political issues and possible solutions.

      I look at this as the first edition of what will be our first of publication. I plan to update the book about every 3-4 months as an update to our blog site http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US. I plan to continue posting political blogs on http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.U.S.

      If what I am doing is of interest, please buy the book and let me know you have done so. I will then put you on a preferred list that can stay in touch with me personally, and with whom I can communicate directly.

      Thanks for your interest in our blog, and hopefully our book, and staying in touch with us.

      Brad Peery & ArmchairPolitician.US

      Book: WWW. Amazon.com, Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements
      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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    • acp

      ArmchairPolitician.US book on Amazon and Kindle, Title: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements

      Hi,

      Thanks for your comments and interest in the ArmchairPolitician.US blog.

      We at ArmchairPolitician.US have published our first book on Amazon. We have also published it on Kindle. Its title is: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements, By ArmchairPolitician.US and Brad Peery.

      I thought you might have an interest in getting an update on our website that is organized by subject, making it easier for you to get an overall picture of each of the subjects, countries, and events that are going on and affect U.S political issues and possible solutions.

      I look at this as the first edition of what will be our first of publication. I plan to update the book about every 3-4 months as an update to our blog site http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US. I plan to continue posting political blogs on http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.U.S.

      If what I am doing is of interest, please buy the book and let me know you have done so. I will then put you on a preferred list that can stay in touch with me personally, and with whom I can communicate directly.

      Thanks for your interest in our blog, and hopefully our book, and staying in touch with us.

      Brad Peery & ArmchairPolitician.US

      Book: WWW. Amazon.com, Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements
      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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      ArmchairPolitician.US book on Amazon and Kindle, Title: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements

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      I look at this as the first edition of what will be our first of publication. I plan to update the book about every 3-4 months as an update to our blog site http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US. I plan to continue posting political blogs on http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.U.S.

      If what I am doing is of interest, please buy the book and let me know you have done so. I will then put you on a preferred list that can stay in touch with me personally, and with whom I can communicate directly.

      Thanks for your interest in our blog, and hopefully our book, and staying in touch with us.

      Brad Peery & ArmchairPolitician.US

      Book: WWW. Amazon.com, Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements
      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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      ArmchairPolitician.US book on Amazon and Kindle, Title: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements

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      We at ArmchairPolitician.US have published our first book on Amazon. We have also published it on Kindle. Its title is: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements, By ArmchairPolitician.US and Brad Peery.

      I thought you might have an interest in getting an update on our website that is organized by subject, making it easier for you to get an overall picture of each of the subjects, countries, and events that are going on and affect U.S political issues and possible solutions.

      I look at this as the first edition of what will be our first of publication. I plan to update the book about every 3-4 months as an update to our blog site http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US. I plan to continue posting political blogs on http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.U.S.

      If what I am doing is of interest, please buy the book and let me know you have done so. I will then put you on a preferred list that can stay in touch with me personally, and with whom I can communicate directly.

      Thanks for your interest in our blog, and hopefully our book, and staying in touch with us.

      Brad Peery & ArmchairPolitician.US

      Book: WWW. Amazon.com, Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements
      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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      ArmchairPolitician.US book on Amazon and Kindle, Title: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements

      Hi,

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      We at ArmchairPolitician.US have published our first book on Amazon. We have also published it on Kindle. Its title is: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements, By ArmchairPolitician.US and Brad Peery.

      I thought you might have an interest in getting an update on our website that is organized by subject, making it easier for you to get an overall picture of each of the subjects, countries, and events that are going on and affect U.S political issues and possible solutions.

      I look at this as the first edition of what will be our first of publication. I plan to update the book about every 3-4 months as an update to our blog site http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US. I plan to continue posting political blogs on http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.U.S.

      If what I am doing is of interest, please buy the book and let me know you have done so. I will then put you on a preferred list that can stay in touch with me personally, and with whom I can communicate directly.

      Thanks for your interest in our blog, and hopefully our book, and staying in touch with us.

      Brad Peery & ArmchairPolitician.US

      Book: WWW. Amazon.com, Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements
      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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      ArmchairPolitician.US book on Amazon and Kindle, Title: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements

      Hi,

      Thanks for your comments and interest in the ArmchairPolitician.US blog.

      We at ArmchairPolitician.US have published our first book on Amazon. We have also published it on Kindle. Its title is: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements, By ArmchairPolitician.US and Brad Peery.

      I thought you might have an interest in getting an update on our website that is organized by subject, making it easier for you to get an overall picture of each of the subjects, countries, and events that are going on and affect U.S political issues and possible solutions.

      I look at this as the first edition of what will be our first of publication. I plan to update the book about every 3-4 months as an update to our blog site http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US. I plan to continue posting political blogs on http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.U.S.

      If what I am doing is of interest, please buy the book and let me know you have done so. I will then put you on a preferred list that can stay in touch with me personally, and with whom I can communicate directly.

      Thanks for your interest in our blog, and hopefully our book, and staying in touch with us.

      Brad Peery & ArmchairPolitician.US

      Book: WWW. Amazon.com, Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements
      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

  • Youre so cool! I dont suppose Ive read anything like this before. So good to find someone with some unique ideas on this subject. realy thanks for beginning this up. this website is something that’s needed on the net, somebody with a bit of originality. useful job for bringing something new to the web!

    • acp

      ArmchairPolitician.US book on Amazon and Kindle, Title: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements

      Hi,

      Thanks for your comments and interest in the ArmchairPolitician.US blog.

      We at ArmchairPolitician.US have published our first book on Amazon. We have also published it on Kindle. Its title is: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements, By ArmchairPolitician.US and Brad Peery.

      I thought you might have an interest in getting an update on our website that is organized by subject, making it easier for you to get an overall picture of each of the subjects, countries, and events that are going on and affect U.S political issues and possible solutions.

      I look at this as the first edition of what will be our first of publication. I plan to update the book about every 3-4 months as an update to our blog site http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US. I plan to continue posting political blogs on http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.U.S.

      If what I am doing is of interest, please buy the book and let me know you have done so. I will then put you on a preferred list that can stay in touch with me personally, and with whom I can communicate directly.

      Thanks for your interest in our blog, and hopefully our book, and staying in touch with us.

      Brad Peery & ArmchairPolitician.US

      Book: WWW. Amazon.com, Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements
      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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    • acp

      ArmchairPolitician.US book on Amazon and Kindle, Title: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements

      Hi,

      Thanks for your comments and interest in the ArmchairPolitician.US blog.

      We at ArmchairPolitician.US have published our first book on Amazon. We have also published it on Kindle. Its title is: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements, By ArmchairPolitician.US and Brad Peery.

      I thought you might have an interest in getting an update on our website that is organized by subject, making it easier for you to get an overall picture of each of the subjects, countries, and events that are going on and affect U.S political issues and possible solutions.

      I look at this as the first edition of what will be our first of publication. I plan to update the book about every 3-4 months as an update to our blog site http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US. I plan to continue posting political blogs on http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.U.S.

      If what I am doing is of interest, please buy the book and let me know you have done so. I will then put you on a preferred list that can stay in touch with me personally, and with whom I can communicate directly.

      Thanks for your interest in our blog, and hopefully our book, and staying in touch with us.

      Brad Peery & ArmchairPolitician.US

      Book: WWW. Amazon.com, Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements
      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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