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Job Growth Uncertainties: What Is Causing Them?

ArmchairPoliticianJobs, June 5, 2017, Brad Peery, WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US, ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

Job growth has suddenly declined sharply, but it is accompanied by a 4.3% level of unemployment, the lowest unemployment rate since May 2001. The May jobs report, which had job gains at 138,000, was particularly weak and unexpected. The March and April jobs numbers were revised downward by 66,000 jobs, reducing the last 3 months job gains to an average of 121,000. This is about two-thirds of the job growth rate in 2016. This was apparently accompanied by a weakening of the inflation rate to about 2%, instead of the 2.5% rate it has been running, and a 0.2% drop in the 10-year Treasury Note yield. Also, average hourly earnings increases were stuck at 2.5%, where they have been since 2015. Despite the low unemployment number, the other indicators make it seem like we are in a weak economic environment.

To look at real unemployment, U-6 is a good measure, since it includes part-time workers, and workers and students that have stopped seeking work. U-6 showed an 8.4% unemployment rate in May, 2017. One factor could be that Obamacare does not require employers to provide health insurance, if the workers do not work over 29 hours per week, encouraging hiring less than full-time workers. However, there appear to be other possible factors. There appear to be shortages of skilled workers in areas such as construction and technology, or jobs requiring college degrees. Job openings appear to be near all-time highs. Although there are lots of jobs, companies do not seem to be willing to pay higher wages to get workers. This appears to be particularly the case for unskilled workers in the $9 per hour wage range.

ArmchairPolitician.US Opinion
The economy looked as if it would go from a 0.7% of GDP growth rate in Q1 2017 to about 3.5% in the second quarter, and 2% for the year 2017. There seems to be some weakness in automobiles, and perhaps other durables. The second quarter will be telling as to how the year 2017 will unfold. In any case, the Trump Budget assumptions of 2.3% economic growth in fiscal 2017 appear unlikely to be met.

See:
March 2, 2017, Brad Peery, ArmchairPolitician.US
Trump Believes We Can We Achieve 3% Economic Growth. What are the Realities?

See Also:
Feb 27, 2017, By Brad Peery, ArmchairPolitician.US
The Realities of the BLS Unemployment Statistics. Real Unemployment Is Substantially Under-Reported

32 comments to Job Growth Uncertainties: What Is Causing Them?

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      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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      ArmchairPolitician.US book on Amazon and Kindle, Title: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements

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      Book: WWW. Amazon.com, Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements
      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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