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Iraq Appears To Have A Moderate Government. Can The U.S. Trust Iraq As a Future Partner?

ArmchairPolitiicianMiddleEast, July 6, 2017, by Brad Peery, ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com, www.ArmchairPolitician.US

The Kurds are in control of Iraqi territory in the north. that appears likely to be a new country. Iraq has agreed to the Kurds having their own country, Kurdistan, in Iraq. The Kurds will vote on September 25, 2017 on whether to establish Kurdistan. Once this referendum is approved, which it likely will be, Kurdistan President Masoud Barzani, will negotiate with he Iraqi Prime Minister is Haider al-Abadi about the terms and the timing of the separation from Syria. Two things are complication the situation. Iraq will have an election next year that could bring into power radical Shiites that oppose the Kurds. Also, the Kurds hold territory outside Kurdistan that includes Kirkuk and nearby oil fields. The Kurds also have a presence in Syria, Iran and Turkey and all of these countries oppose the Kurds getting their own country, fearing that Kurds in their countries will be encouraged to produce similar results in those countries.

According the an article by ex-ambassador John Bolton, who is now with the American Enterprise Institute, the Kurds are not monolithic. The Kurds in Syria, whom, the U.S. is backing, are apparently linked to the Marxist PKK in Turkey. The U.S. has branded the PKK a terrorist organization, and is working with Turkey to fight terrorism, including the PKK. However, we are selling weapons to the Kurds in Syria, and fighting beside them to defeat ISIS in Mosul and in Northern Syria. The U.S. provides the Kurds, known as the YPG, in Syria with air power and special-forces assistance. Facing resistance from Turkey, a NATO ally, the U.S. is parceling out weapons as they are required in Raqqa, and taking steps to prevent those weapons being used by the PKK in Turkey. Besides small arms, the YPG is being given anti-tank weapons. The U.S. views the Kurds as a separate fighting force, not a terrorist group. Since Raqqa is primarily Sunni, the Muslim partners in the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), of which the YPG is a partner with Arab groups, who are likely to play the role of integrating with the local Sunni population. The Kurds make up the largest part of this 50,000 fighter group. The battle for Raqqa started in June, and is in the early stages of defeating a determined ISIS force. Another nearby area that still has an ISIS force is Deir Ezzour province, which is oil-rich. Assad, allied with Russia and Iran, is likely to take thst region from ISIS. Raqqa is likely to be the SDF’s last major battle, and the SDF could remain in control of Raqqa, during the post-ISIS period in Syria.

The situation in Iraq is quite different. The Iraqi Prime Minister is Haider al-Abadi. Over a 3-year period, Abadi has managed to narrow the gaps between the warring Shiites and Sunnis. He managed to balance the competing interests of Iran and the U.S., while rebuilding the Iraqi security forces. President Trump has removed Iraq from the immigration ban, strengthened the U.S.-Irag ties. Iraq’s security forces are in the final stages of defeating ISIS in Mosul, with the final battle being waged in the Old City. This completes the recovery from ISIS taking much of Iraq in 2014, and declaring a caliphate in Mosul.

Iran has a major influence in Iraq. Iran is the largest Shiite country, and was determined not to lose Iraq to the Sunnis. Through Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the preeminent Shiite cleric in Iraq, Shiite militias were formed and trained by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. The forces are supposed to be under the control of Iraq. The bond with Iraq gives Iran a supply route from Iran through Syria and Iraq to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The U.S. has also been very active militarily in Iraq. The U.S. has spent more than a billion dollars to train and equip the Iraqis and fund U.S. troops in Iraq. The support includes advanced arms and air support. The Iraqi military personnel have pledged to be non-sectarian, which facilitated the U.S. assistance.

ArmchairPolitician.US
The U.S. faces challenges to the continuing loyalty of Iraq, because of the strong military reliance of Iraq on Iran. Also, the elections next year could increase the power of radical Shiites. The Kurds appear likely to form Kurdistan in Iraq. It is possible that this will strengthen the continuing role of the YPG in Iraq, and lead to the formation of Kurdistan, a separate country. The U.S. needs to continue to work with the moderate Iraqi government, with the hope that radical Shiites will not gain control. It also needs to continue to support the Kurds.

See:
ArmchairPolitiicianMiddleEast, July 5, 2017, by Brad Peery, ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com, www.ArmchairPolitician.US
Lebanon Provides An Example Of The Threat We Face From Iran and Hezbollah. Can We Learn From Our Mistakes?

See Also:
ArmchairPolitiicianHezbollah, June 13, 2017, by Brad Peery, WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US, ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com
Iran Is Financing Terrorism In The U.S. Through Hezbollah: Iran and Hezbollah Are Enemies Of The U.S. Will the U.S. Recognize This Reality?

41 comments to Iraq Appears To Have A Moderate Government. Can The U.S. Trust Iraq As a Future Partner?

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      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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      If what I am doing is of interest, please buy the book and let me know you have done so. I will then put you on a preferred list that can stay in touch with me personally, and with whom I can communicate directly.

      Thanks for your interest in our blog, and hopefully our book, and staying in touch with us.

      Brad Peery & ArmchairPolitician.US

      Book: WWW. Amazon.com, Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements
      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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    • acp

      ArmchairPolitician.US book on Amazon and Kindle, Title: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements

      Hi,

      Thanks for your comments and interest in the ArmchairPolitician.US blog.

      We at ArmchairPolitician.US have published our first book on Amazon. We have also published it on Kindle. Its title is: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements, By ArmchairPolitician.US and Brad Peery.

      I thought you might have an interest in getting an update on our website that is organized by subject, making it easier for you to get an overall picture of each of the subjects, countries, and events that are going on and affect U.S political issues and possible solutions.

      I look at this as the first edition of what will be our first of publication. I plan to update the book about every 3-4 months as an update to our blog site http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US. I plan to continue posting political blogs on http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.U.S.

      If what I am doing is of interest, please buy the book and let me know you have done so. I will then put you on a preferred list that can stay in touch with me personally, and with whom I can communicate directly.

      Thanks for your interest in our blog, and hopefully our book, and staying in touch with us.

      Brad Peery & ArmchairPolitician.US

      Book: WWW. Amazon.com, Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements
      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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    • acp

      ArmchairPolitician.US book on Amazon and Kindle, Title: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements

      Hi,

      Thanks for your comments and interest in the ArmchairPolitician.US blog.

      We at ArmchairPolitician.US have published our first book on Amazon. We have also published it on Kindle. Its title is: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements, By ArmchairPolitician.US and Brad Peery.

      I thought you might have an interest in getting an update on our website that is organized by subject, making it easier for you to get an overall picture of each of the subjects, countries, and events that are going on and affect U.S political issues and possible solutions.

      I look at this as the first edition of what will be our first of publication. I plan to update the book about every 3-4 months as an update to our blog site http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US. I plan to continue posting political blogs on http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.U.S.

      If what I am doing is of interest, please buy the book and let me know you have done so. I will then put you on a preferred list that can stay in touch with me personally, and with whom I can communicate directly.

      Thanks for your interest in our blog, and hopefully our book, and staying in touch with us.

      Brad Peery & ArmchairPolitician.US

      Book: WWW. Amazon.com, Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements
      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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    • acp

      ArmchairPolitician.US book on Amazon and Kindle, Title: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements

      Hi,

      Thanks for your comments and interest in the ArmchairPolitician.US blog.

      We at ArmchairPolitician.US have published our first book on Amazon. We have also published it on Kindle. Its title is: Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements, By ArmchairPolitician.US and Brad Peery.

      I thought you might have an interest in getting an update on our website that is organized by subject, making it easier for you to get an overall picture of each of the subjects, countries, and events that are going on and affect U.S political issues and possible solutions.

      I look at this as the first edition of what will be our first of publication. I plan to update the book about every 3-4 months as an update to our blog site http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US. I plan to continue posting political blogs on http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.U.S.

      If what I am doing is of interest, please buy the book and let me know you have done so. I will then put you on a preferred list that can stay in touch with me personally, and with whom I can communicate directly.

      Thanks for your interest in our blog, and hopefully our book, and staying in touch with us.

      Brad Peery & ArmchairPolitician.US

      Book: WWW. Amazon.com, Trump’s Political Agenda and Achievements
      Blog Site: http://WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US
      Email: ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

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