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Iran Is Executing On Its Plan To Extend Its Shiite Influence And Gain A Supply Route To The Mediterranean.

ArmchairPolitiicianIran, July 24, 2017, by Brad Peery, WWW.ArmchairPolitician.US, ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com

Iran has a two-pronged attack to extend its influence in Iraq. It has militias that are integrated with the Iraqi government forces to fight ISIS. It also has political influence.

The election next year will pit pro-Iran Nouri al-Maliki, the former prime minister, against Haider al-Abadi, the current prime minister. Mr. Abadi has developed strong ties with the U.S. The election is expected to be close, and a continued allegiance of Iraq to the U.S. is not assured. Abadi is working to reduce the influence of the Iran-backed militias in the military, even though they have been very helpful in the fight against ISIS.

Iraq is a majority Shiite country, and the legislature in Iraq has some strong supporters of Iran, also a Shiite country.

Iran, and its proxy, Hezbollah, have been working with Assad and Russia to recapture land lost to ISIS and other militants in Syria.

In Raqqa, Iraq, US forces are backing a coalition of Kurds and Arabs known as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). They control land in Northern Syria, and could control Raaqa after the war. Following the war, the control of Raqqa by the SDF could be important impediment to Iran’s ability to ship weapons through Raqqa to Mosel, the route that was previously the core supply route for ISIS. The Iran weapons route now appears it could go through the northern part of Iraq and Syria, where it could face U.S. resistance. Alternatively it could go south through Baghdad, and then west through Southern Iraq and on to Damascus in Syria. From there it could North through Homs to Tartus, on the Mediterranean, or through Lebanon to the Mediterranean. It appears probable the Iran will be able to secure a route to the Mediterranean, unless they are blocked from going through both Northern and Southern Syria. A link to the Mediterranean going from the Mediterranean through Lebanon to Iran would allow weapons to be supplied by ship to Iran’s whole weapons supply line.

ArmchairPolitician.US Opinion:
The U.S presence in Iraq and both Northern and Southern Syria could provide a roadblock to Iran developing a supply line to the Mediterranean. It will be very important to continue to work with the Kurds and Iraq, and hope that Abadi does not lose the election in Iraq

See:
ArmchairPolitiicianMiddleEast, July 6, 2017, by Brad Peery, ArmchairPolitician.US@gmail.com, www.ArmchairPolitician.US
Iraq Appears To Have A Moderate Government. Can U.S. Trust Iraq As a Future Partner

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